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Health Risk Analysis Overview:
The
following offers a summary of our expertise in providing health risk analysis
tools and related professional services:
Description
of Services:
Since 1986, Cox Associates
has provided scientific risk analyses and related statistical and engineering
consulting services in the following areas. Please click on the links
for examples of our publications and software.
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Balancing real versus theoretical risks to the Canadian blood supply
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http://cox-associates.com/health.htm
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Causal modeling of antimicrobial resistance
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http://www.oie.int/eng/press/a_051001.htm
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Biologically-based risk assessment of chemical carcinogens
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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/htbin-post/Entrez/query?uid=9118928&form=6&db=m&Dopt=b
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Assessment of attributable risks, probabilities of causation, and
shares in causation for risks caused by the joint actions of multiple
factors. (See e.g., Cox, L.A., Jr., "Statistical issues in the
estimation of assigned shares for carcinogenesis liability,"
Risk Analysis, 7, 1, 71-80, 1987.)
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Design and analysis of long-term animal bioassays
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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/htbin-post/Entrez/query?uid=8901907&form=6&dB=m&Dopt=b
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Computer modeling of known and suspected causal toxicological mechanisms
of chemically induced health effects. (See e.g., Cox, LA, Jr., 1999.
A biomathematical model of hematotoxicity. Environment International,
23, 6/7.)
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http://cox-associates.com/risk.htm
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Advanced statistical data analysis and interpretation of epidemiological
data
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http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/htbin-post/Entrez/query?uid=9463933&form=6&dB=m&Dopt=b
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Exposure and consequence modeling, environmental fate and transport
modeling, population mobility models, and engineering safety models.
(See e.g., Cox, LA, Jr., 1999. Optimal adaptive sampling of contaminated
soils. Forthcoming in Risk Analysis. (Accepted 10-98).)
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Risk management decision making and applied decision analysis. (See
e.g., Cox, LA, Jr., K. Paige, D. Popken, 1999. Software review of
Analytica 1.2. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 5,
2, 305-316.)
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Artificial intelligence, machine learning, causal modeling, and data
mining methods for finding valuable predictive patterns in complex
data. (See e.g., Cox, LA, Jr., 1996. Using causal knowledge to learn
more useful decision rules from data. Chapter 2 in D. Fisher and H.-J.
Lenz (eds.), Learning from Data: AI and Statistics V. Springer-Verlag.
See also http://uncertainty99.microsoft.com/proceedings.htm)
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Operations research modeling and optimization of business and engineering
operations and risky business decisions. (See e.g., Cox, LA, Jr.,
and J.R. Sanchez, 1999. Designing least-cost survivable wireless backhaul
networks. Forthcoming in Journal of Heuristics..)
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Uncertainty analysis of exposure-response and dose response relations.
(See e.g., Cox, LA, Jr., 1996. More accurate estimates of dose-response
functions using Monte-Carlo uncertainty analysis: The Data Cube approach."
Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 2, 1, 146-170.)
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Projects
Completed:
Examples of Health,
Safety, and Environmental Risk Analysis projects completed by Cox Associates
include the following.
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Risk Analysis for World Health Organization.
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Created computer simulation models (PBPK and pharmacodynamic) of dose-time-response
relations for low-level exposures to chemical carcinogens, for Exxon
Biomedical Sciences (EBSI).
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For the American Petroleum Institute (API), created a computer simulation
model of bone marrow and blood cell toxicity caused by cyclophosphamide,
an immunosuppressive drug. Designed laboratory experiments to validate
the model's predictions. Analyzed clinical and laboratory data to
test model's predictive validity. Prepared a software release so that
other scientists could use the model.
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Developed an artificial intelligence method for improving prediction
of likely human chemical carcinogens, also for EBSI.
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Critically reviewed epidemiological studies of diesel exhaust and
human lung cancer risk for the Engine Manufacturers Association. Presented
conclusions in several hearings.
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Reviewed literature on air pollution and human lung cancer risks,
for the American Petroleum Institute.
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Applied adaptive spatial sampling to optimize search and clean-up
efforts for remediating residential properties around an abandoned
hazardous waste site (for AlliedSignal)
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Reassessed human cancer risks from 1,3-butadiene using pharmacokinetic
modeling to adjust for interspecies differences in internal doses
of epoxybutene (for the Chemical Manufacturers Association)
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Reassessed the human leukemia risks from benzene exposure using a
physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model to calculate internal
dose (for the American Petroleum Association)
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Reviewed design of an initiation-promotion experiment for studying
the potential carcinogenicity of a rubber additive, for Goodyear Tire
and Rubber Company.
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Developed a general physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling
tool for rapidly developing high-quality PBPK models (with ENSR Consulting
and Engineering, Inc.)
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Reviewed artificial intelligence approaches to characterizing uncertain
health risks using weight of evidence, nonmonotonic, and other uncertainty
analysis (for Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)
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Assessed potential health risks associated with occupational exposure
to herbicides among roadside workers, using pharmacokinetic models,
for a Fortune 100 chemical manufacturer.
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Risk screening, exposure modeling, hazard index calculation, and recommendation
of cleanup priorities for a large hazardous waste site in Canada
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Developed technical reports and a prototype computer modeling tool
for biologically based risk assessment of cancer risks from chemical
carcinogens, for the Western States Petroleum Association (WSPA) and
the American Petroleum Institute (API)
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Reviewed new biostatistical and "biologically based" approaches
to cancer risk analysis, for the California Department of Health Services
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Reviewed regulatory history of benzene risk assessments and of biomathematical
approaches to modeling leukemogenesis for the Western Oil and Gas
Association and the American Petroleum Institute
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Prototype computer modeling of the AIDS epidemic (with Arthur D. Little,
Inc.)
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Designed a 2-year bioassay experiment for isoprene. Analyzed and reported
the resulting experimental data for a multi-client, multinational
industry group coordinated by Exxon Biomedical Sciences.
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Accident risk analysis and consequence analysis of a petrochemical
storage facility in California, for a California-based environmental
consulting firm
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Implemented a Macintosh version of a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic
(PBPK) model for benzene pharmacokinetics and total metabolism in
rodents and humans, for the API
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Explored new mathematical approaches and conceptual frameworks for
dealing with scientific uncertainties in biologically-based risk assessment,
for the Western States Petroleum Association (WSPA)
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Created an interactive data analysis and graphics package for determining
the degree of worker protection provided by different respirators,
filters, and face masks (with Arthur D. Little, Inc.)
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Microeconomic and applied probability modeling of insurance company
business risks for use in tax litigation (with Arthur D. Little, Inc.)
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Critically reviewed a transportation risk analysis for liquefied natural
gas (LNG) operations in the St. Lawrence seaway. Reviewed progress
since 1985 in using decision analysis for accident risk assessments.
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Implemented an experimental "intelligent" data base management
system for chemical health effects data bases (with Exxon Biomedical
Sciences, Inc.)
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Uncertainty analysis of PBPK modeling and risk analyses, accounting
for model uncertainties and population heterogeneity, for the American
Industrial Health Council.
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Developed new techniques for assessing and predicting the cancer risks
associated with mineral oils and petroleum products, for Mobil Oil.
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Publications:
For
the past twenty years, Cox Associates has been an innovator in many areas
of risk analysis methods and models for applications, contributing to
areas such as biologically-based risk modeling and improved methods for
uncertainty analysis. Examples of publications in various areas of risk
analysis in the past five years include the following.
Cox,
L.A., Jr., 1999. A biomathematical model of hematotoxicity. Environment
International, 23, 6/7.
Cox,
L.A., Jr., 1999. Internal dose, uncertainty analysis, and complexity of
risk models. Environment International, forthcoming. (Accepted
6-99).
Cox,
L.A., Jr., 1999. Optimal adaptive sampling of contaminated soils. Risk
Analysis, Forthcoming. (Accepted 10-98).
Cox,
L.A., Jr., K. Paige, D. Popken, 1999. Software review of Analytica 1.2.
Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 5, 2,
305-316.
Chiu,
S.Y., L.A. Cox, Jr., X. Sun, 1999. Optimal sequential inspections of reliability
systems subject to parallel-chain precedence constraints. Discrete
Applied Mathematics (forthcoming).
Cox,
L.A., Jr., 1997. Does diesel exhaust cause human lung cancer? Risk
Analysis, 17, 6, 807-829.
Cox,
L.A., Jr., 1996. Reassessing benzene risks using internal doses and Monte-Carlo
uncertainty analysis. Environmental Health Perspectives, 104,
Supplement 6, 1413-1429.
Cox,
L.A., Jr., 1996. More accurate estimates of dose-response functions using
Monte-Carlo uncertainty analysis: The Data Cube approach." Human
and Ecological Risk Assessment, 2, 1, 146-170.
Cox,
L.A., Jr., M.G. Bird, and L. Griffis, 1996. "Isoprene cancer risk
and the time pattern of dose administration." Toxicology, 113,
263-272.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/htbin-post/Entrez/query?uid=8901907&form=6&db=m&Dopt=b
Cox,
L.A., Jr., S. Chiu, and X. Sun, 1996. "Least-cost failure diagnosis
in uncertain reliability systems". Reliability Engineering and
System Safety, 54, 2-3, 203-316.
Placke,
M.E., L. Griffis, M. Bird, J. Bus, R.L. Persing, L.A. Cox, Jr., 1996.
"Chronic inhalation oncogenicity study of isoprene in B6C3F1 mice."
Toxicology, 110, 253-262.
Schnatter,
A.R., M.G. Bird, L.A. Cox, Jr., and R.F. Herrick, 1996. "Defining
optimal exposure assessment methods and metrics for epidemiologic studies
exposures of petroleum distribution workers to benzene." Occupational
Hygiene, 155-160.
Cox,
L.A., Jr., 1995. "Simple relations between administered and internal
doses in compartmental flow models," Risk Analysis, 15,
2, 197-204.
Cox,
L.A., Jr., 1995. "An exact analysis of the multistage model explaining
dose-response concavity," Risk Analysis, 15,
3, 359-368.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/htbin-post/Entrez/query?uid=7604169&form=6&db=m&Dopt=b
Grover,
R.W., and L.A. Cox, Jr., 1995. "Dynamic site portfolio remediation
optimization model," Hazardous Waste Strategies Update, 6,
4, 31 - 39.
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